‘南宫NG28官网’马克安德森 2015年可能发生的科技和商业大事件

本文摘要：No one does predictions like Mark Anderson, whose forecasts about the intersection of the economy and technology are closely followed in Silicon Valley. He has a global view of what’s the next big thing and place along an eye for hot products and countries that about to take a dive. Anderson is head of Strategic News Service, a newsletter publisher for industry leaders and venture capitalists. It claims a readership that includes Dell CEO, Michael Dell, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Microsoft’s Bill Gates. Recently, Mark Anderson listed his predictions for 2015 during a gathering in San Francisco. Here are his key points:没有人能像马克o安德森那样精准地洞闻未来。

No one does predictions like Mark Anderson, whose forecasts about the intersection of the economy and technology are closely followed in Silicon Valley. He has a global view of what’s the next big thing and place along an eye for hot products and countries that about to take a dive. Anderson is head of Strategic News Service, a newsletter publisher for industry leaders and venture capitalists. It claims a readership that includes Dell CEO, Michael Dell, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Microsoft’s Bill Gates. Recently, Mark Anderson listed his predictions for 2015 during a gathering in San Francisco. Here are his key points:没有人能像马克o安德森那样精准地洞闻未来。他对经济与科技交叉领域的应验仍然受到硅谷紧密注目。

他既能共创全球，预判将要横空出世的“下一个大事件”和热点地区，又需要洞察哪些热门产品和国家行将过气。由安德森领衔的“战略新闻服务”公司（Strategic News Service），是一家专为行业领袖和风险投资家服务的通讯出版商。该公司声称享有众多大牌读者，比如戴尔公司首席执行官迈克尔o戴尔、特斯拉公司首席执行官埃伦o穆斯克和微软公司创始人比尔o盖茨。

最近，在旧金山的一个聚会上，马克o安德森就2015年的科技走势公开发表了他的应验。主要观点如下：Tech predictions:技术应验：o Digital currencies like bitcoin will multiply and go nowhere. Currencies require the economic strength and military power of a nation to garner people’s trust.o 像比特币这样的数字货币将层出不穷，同时也不会步入绝境。

货币总是必须一个国家的经济实力和军事力量不作确保才能夺得人们的信任。o Net neutrality, the idea that Internet service providers and governments should treat all data equally, will survive.o “网络中立性”，即互联网服务供应商和政府不应公平对待所有数据这一理念，将之后存活。

o Pattern recognition will become the real goal of big data. A host of new tools and chips will be developed, to let people gather data and pick out trends that they would otherwise be unable to see, setting off a revolution in computing.o 模式识别将沦为大数据的确实目标。将有大批新的工具和芯片被研发出来，让人们搜集数据，辨识此前无法洞察的趋势，从而引起一场计算出来革命。o Following the recent series of corporate hackings, security will become a priority on CEO agendas. Companies will reverse the downward spending trend on security as the cost of poorly protected computer systems outweigh the cost of building secure ones.o 在多家公司近期屡屡遭到黑客攻击后，网络安全将不会沦为首席执行官们注目的头等大事。由于缺少维护的网络系统有可能导致的损失，相比之下多达打造出一个安全性网络所需的成本，各大公司将仍然缩减一紧再紧的安全性支出，转而增大投资。

o Virtual reality will remain the domain of entertainment. Headsets that immerse people in a 3D world will not become a feature of everyday life despite Facebook’s $2 billion acquisition of Oculus, a company that makes virtual reality headsets.o 虚拟现实领域将仍由娱乐业主导。尽管Facebook公司耗资20亿美元并购了Oculus公司，但能让人们沉浸于3D世界的头戴式装备离日常生活仍远。

o Expect Amazon to stumble. Between the brawl with publisher Hachette over e-book prices, drones, and the Amazon Fire phone’s flop, losses are heading Amazon’s way.o 亚马逊公司前景危急。由于在电子书定价问题上与Hachette出版发行集团争执不下，再行再加前途未卜的无人机服务和遭遇失利的Fire手机业务，这家电商巨头很有可能遭到巨额亏损。

o Networks for devices connected to the internet (think refrigerators that let you tweet) will get off of their launchpads but remain niche. All people really want is low energy costs, lots of TVs, and one remote. People don’t want complexity replacing reliability and dumb things talking to other dumb things.o 联网家电（比如一台可以让你放微博的冰箱）将转入市场，但仍然会沦为主流。人们确实想的不过是便宜的能源成本，一大堆电视屏幕和一个遥控器。

在许多人显然，让一些会说出的设备互相交流过于简单，或许没传统家电那么可信。o Digital payment service Apple Pay will succeed, establishing it’s leadership in the market.o 苹果公司的数字缴纳服务Apple Pay将大获得顺利，在市场上奠定领导地位。

o Computer encryption will continue to expand as a major trend.o 计算机加密将仍然是主流趋势。o Personal health and fitness and lifestyle devices will merge, and there will be a plethora of watches and fitness bands on the market. Intelligent clothing, (think: socks that are connected to the internet and can monitor your blood flow), will stay niche due to price and inconsistency.o 个人保健、健美和生活方式设备将不会融合，市场上将不会兴起大量手表和健美腕带。智能服装（设想一下：和互联网连接、能监测血流量的袜子）由于其价格和可靠性问题，仍将归属于小众产品。

Economic predictions:经济未来发展：o Oil prices will stay low.An increased supply of alternative energy and additional oil supplies from fracking mean oil prices will stay at $50-$60 a barrel, down by more than half from earlier this year. Trillions of dollars that were tied up in energy spending are now available for bridges, schools, and infrastructure. It’s a gift to the world.o 油价仍将保持低位。大大减少的新能源和水力压裂法生产的石油意味著油价将不会保持在每桶50-60美元，比今年年初上升一半多。

曾被能源开支闲置的大量金钱现在能用来修筑桥梁、学校和其他基础设施。这将是赠送给全世界的一份厚礼。o China has a lot to worry about.China’s economy is driven by politics rather than money. Between fudged numbers in government economic reports, pollution, and the population’s distrust of food quality, China’s population is unhappy. China’s leadership is well-educated and intelligent so they’re managing to hold everything together, so it will take years for China to crumble. When it does, the fall will be hard.o 中国将面对考验。

中国经济主要是靠政治而非资本驱动。政府的经济报告弥漫着粗制滥造的数据，环境污染相当严重，人们早已仍然信任食品质量。

总而言之，中国人并不快乐。中国的领导人接受较好教育，十分明智。

他们正在希望保持宏观经济的平稳，因此说道中国不会陷入困境还为时尚早。不过一旦这一天到来，那就将是一场硬着陆。o Japan is in a sweet spot.For all the talk about how Japan is in trouble—natural disasters, aging workforce—it is, in fact, doing well. Its business model of high quality exports, a strong global presence with companies like Toyota, and relatively few imports compared to other countries mean Japan’s economy is going strong.o 日本经济未来将会步入衰退。

尽管关于日本身陷困境的众说纷纭不绝于耳——自然灾害时有发生，劳动力老化等等——但它实质上状况不俗。它依赖高品质出口商品的商业模式，丰田汽车公司这类跨国企业在全球的强势展现出，以及比较其他国家较较少的进口意味著，日本经济将不会走强。

o Samsung is in trouble.Samsung’s business model is based on selling modified versions of existing inventions like the iPhone rather than inventing. With the rise of Chinese competitors like smartphone maker Xiaomi gaining market share, Samsung is in a tight spot.o 三星公司将身陷困境。三星公司的商业模式是销售现有发明者（如iPhone）的改进产品，而不是基于自主创新产品。随着智能手机制造商小米公司这类中国竞争对手的强势兴起，三星的好日子有可能身下了。o India looks pretty good.The recent visits between US and India mean tighter military relations. US is about to give it’s blessing on India’s nuclear weapons program, which has already produced nuclear weapons. This will be the basis for a tighter alliance in South Asia between India and the US that will make China nervous.o 印度的情况看上去不俗。

美国与印度领导人近期的屡屡会晤意味著两国正在强化军事关系。美国将对印度的核武器项目增大反对，而后者实际已生产出有核武器。这将沦为印度和美国在南亚地区结为更加密切同盟关系的基础，而这将使中国深感紧绷。

o The European Union is going through a cultural clash.Germany makes most of the decisions, and the question is how will the rest of northern Europe especially Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark stand for it?o 欧盟将经历文化冲突。目前绝大多数决策都是德国做出的，问题是，其他北欧国家，特别是在是瑞典、芬兰、挪威和丹麦否不会反对德国？o Australia’s not doing great.China owns a large chunk of Australia’s businesses. When Australia had the money to spare, it didn’t invest in it’s own industries and universities. Now, Australia is a natural resource based economy with a sliding dollar at a time when natural resource prices are plunging. Its biggest customer is China, and China is interested in owning Australian businesses.o 澳大利亚状况佳。中国持有人澳大利亚企业的大量股权。

当澳大利亚手头有钱人时，它没将其投资到自己的产业和大学中。现在，随着自然资源价格大大暴跌，澳大利亚已沦为一个货币大大回头硬、依赖自然资源居多的经济体。

它仅次于的客户是中国，而中国的兴趣在于沦为澳大利亚众多企业的主人。

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